Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08192020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 closed as bull engulf D1-C‑D 2.00218 but with longer sell­ing wick
• H4 bear engulf below pre­vi­ous sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 2.00773 fol­lowed by DBD with longer wicks fol­lowed by con­sol­i­da­tion indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble Phase 3 in play
• AS clos­ing with a break from H4 con­sol­i­da­tion down cre­at­ing new sup­ply at H4-C‑S 2.00550
  • Price is trad­ing below VWAP and D1 demand
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After 2 days of brack­et­ing yesterday’s val­ue is slight­ly high­er but still over­lap­ping indi­cat­ing more balancing
  • LN open below val­ue out­side range at ADR 0.5
  • ADR 1264
  • ASR 921
  • H4-C‑S 2.00773 with­in val­ue at PPOC
  • D1-C‑D 2.00218 just 30 pips below VAL
  • H4-C‑S 2.01105 at VAH and ADR 0.5 is just above, with­in M30 QLo
  • H4-C‑D 1.99938 at ADR 0-.5, M30 QLo and yes­ter­day ses­sion low

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Mid MN, W1, and D1 swing
• W1 closed above VWAP, cur­rent can­dle with­in last week’s body, retraced D1 Bull Engulf
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

• Sen­ti­ment
  • Price below val­ue out­side range, fair imbal­ance, might see slight con­tin­u­a­tion but due to D1 C‑dem this might be short-lived although it is along the lines of H4 Phase 3. A mean rever­sion is a more safer play. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • LN open below val­ue out­side range
    • Pos­si­ble mean rever­sion ADR 0.5 at H4 c‑dem, M30 QLo and yes­ter­day ses­sion low, IB range wider than usu­al less like­li­hood of momen­tum plays, pos­si­ble fake play down with failed auction
• Hypo 2
  • Due to H4 phase 3 might see a con­tin­u­a­tion down­wards fur­ther enhanced through an ADR exhaus­tion with no rever­sal signs.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 2.01105
• H4-C‑S 2.00550

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 2.00218
• H4-C‑D 1.99938
• H4-C‑D 1.99557

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept light

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING