Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08182020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 weak near-bear engulf
• Pre­vi­ous H4 sup­ply tak­en out, near arrive to H4-C‑S 2.01105
• Price still above H4 VWAP and UKC
• Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 in effect
• H4 Bull Engulf formed new demand at H4-C‑D 2.00218 just above pre­vi­ous demand of H4-C‑D 1.99926
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR 1323
  • ASR 937
  • 2nd day brack­et­ing which seems to be the theme since last week. 2 days brack­et­ing fol­lowed by a move up. 
  • Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing with­in val­ue but need to reassess at LN open
  • ADR 0.5 right above VAH
  • ADR exhaus­tion short yesterday’s low
  • H4-C‑D 2.00218 at yesterday’s range low
  • H4-C‑D 1.99557 at ADR exhaus­tion below
  • H4-C‑S 2.01105 at ADR exhaus­tion above

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Mid MN, W1, and D1 swing
• W1 closed above VWAP, cur­rent can­dle above last week’s body
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment — Neu­tral for now

• If LN opens below val­ue with­in range (or even with­in val­ue) we could see a move down since medi­um time frame is in a range and we are at the top of the range
  • Open below with­in range would be most pre­ferred here with price action con­firm­ing a pos­si­ble break down from H4-C‑D 2.00218 although due to under­ly­ing demand ZOIs this could be a poten­tial­ly ago­niz­ing­ly slow and risky play short
  • An exhaus­tion to the top is a bet­ter loca­tion for a pos­si­ble short with H4-C‑S 2.01105 right there
    • A failed auc­tion would be preferred
• Although since larg­er time­frame is still bull­ish need to be careful. 
• Due to H4 and D1 being up in trend the safer play would be at H4-C‑D 1.99557 coin­cid­ing with ADR exhaustion

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 2.01105

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 2.00218
• H4-C‑D 1.99938
• H4-C‑D 1.99557

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Align with mar­ket narrative
  • Tak­ing a trade is not a priority 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING