Premarket Prep DE30 DAX 08252020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DE30 DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DE30 DAX Week 35 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 bull engulf arriv­ing at D1-C‑S 13131.34 with­in D1 QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • LN open
    • LN open above val­ue, out­side range
      • Could mean a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion since we are deal­ing with equities
  • ADR 19133
  • ASR 18437
  • D1-C‑S 13131.34 with­in QHi below ADR 0.5 (0.5xASR) at low­er time frame supply

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in W1 sup­ply phase 3 range
• With­in W1 QHi

Sen­ti­ment — Bearish

• Sen­ti­ment

• Price trad­ing with­in QHi after an exten­sive UT near­ing sup­ply cre­at­ed at all-time high com­bined with cur­rent larg­er time frame sup­ply cre­at­ed and price action hint­ing to a phase 3 would sug­gest a bear­ish sen­ti­ment. Equi­ties being what they are going short proves more chal­leng­ing. Fur­ther­more, an open out­side val­ue and range might prove as momen­tum for a pos­si­ble continuation. 
• IB
  • A closed as bull Engulf, B retraced almost entirely
• Sen­ti­ment: due to the nature of equi­ties I am inter­est­ed to see how price devel­ops giv­en the cur­rent con­di­tions with yes­ter­day hav­ing a big up-day, today open­ing above val­ue out­side range at ADR 0.5 I am lean­ing towards a mean rever­sion. C has already extend­ed IB down but can’t call it a sus­tained auc­tion just yet. Will mon­i­tor closely.

• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — SHORT
  • LN open above val­ue, out­side range
    • D1-C‑S 13131.34 with­in QHi below ADR 0.5 (0.5xASR) at low­er time frame sup­ply, no retrace­ment to yesterday’s move yet, mean reversion
• Hypo 2 — SHORT
  • LN open above val­ue, out­side range
    • Val­ue acceptance
• Hypo 3 — LONG
  • LN open above val­ue, out­side range
    • Bounce off VAH (coin­cid­ing with M30 VWAP in UT, plus above VWAP and KC) 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 13131.34

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H1-C‑D 13041.72

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay, still sick

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING