DE30 DAX Week 35 Trading Plan

23 Aug DE30 DAX Week 35 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DE30 oth­er­wise known as DAX. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me.

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• 3rd month test­ing MN-C‑S 12929.04
• Last month closed as doji (slight­ly below MN QHi) with longer sell­ing wick test­ing over­head supply
• Devel­op­ing month trad­ing above last month’s body with­in range
• Trad­ing with­in Q1 QHi, devel­op­ing month with­in MN QHi but no close until slight over a week from now

Week­ly — Neutral

• Phase 3
  • W1-C‑S 12781.52 cre­at­ed with­in MN QHi no fol­low-through on move away pos­si­ble Phase 3 cre­at­ing demand through inside bar at W1-C‑D 12675.52
• Some con­sol­i­da­tion at 2nd test of over­head supply

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Test of D1-C‑S 13131.34 an con­se­quent new sup­ply formed at D1-C‑S 12983.01 at D1 QHi clos­ing below QHi through inside bar
• Con­sol­i­da­tion below sup­ply (test­ing QHi) with Fri­day break­ing down from con­sol­i­da­tion giv­ing D1-C‑S 12874.40 (weak with­in clut­ter) and test­ing under­ly­ing demand at D1-C‑D 12646.34 clos­ing with longer buy­ing wick
• Pos­si­ble Phase 3
• Price cur­rent­ly mid swing

H4 — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• Phase 3
  • A lot of con­tra­dict­ing price action with slight break down from bal­anc­ing range
• Long buy­ing wick into H4 QLo com­bined with W1 and D1 demand and con­se­quent bounce cre­at­ing inside bar (H4-C‑D 12779.02) and slight follow-through

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Brack­et­ing profiles

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to slight­ly bearish

• Last month’s can­dle closed as a doji which could turn into an evening star (also a pos­si­ble RBR). Pos­si­ble Phase 3 on W1 and D1 are indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­fir­ma­tion of a MN Evening star form­ing how­ev­er there is still more than a week left. D1 is in a range so until the range is bro­ken, range highs and lows might be best suit­ed as trade loca­tions if pro­file con­firms on the day. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 13131.34
• D1-C‑S 12983.01
• MN-C‑S 12929.04
• D1-C‑S 12874.40 (weak with­in clutter)
• W1-C‑S 12781.52

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 12779.02
• W1-C‑D 12675.52
• D1-C‑D 12646.34
• D1-C‑D 12324.61

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR/ASR
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING