Premarket Prep DE30 DAX 08262020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DE30 DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DE30 DAX Week 35 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Near D1 doji with slight­ly longer sell­ing wick clos­ing below D1-C‑S 13131.34
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day opened above val­ue but then pro­ceed­ed to accept val­ue (out­side of RTH)
  • ADR: 19889
  • ASR: 16881
  • Ses­sion
    • High: 13221.42
    • Low: 13008.79
    • Price with­in ses­sion range
  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑S 13131.34 just below VAL
    • ADR 0.5 just below session’s low (at 12000 from VAL = dis­qual­i­fied for mean reversion)

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in W1 sup­ply phase 3 range
• With­in D1 and W1 QHi

Sen­ti­ment - Slight­ly Bearish

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to val­ue: 0.5x ASR
  • IB
    • A: Touch of session’s low clos­ing as Bull Engulf. B as inside bar with longer sell­ing wick. 
  • Sen­ti­ment: Price is not far away to con­sid­er a mean rever­sion. A long would be war­rant­ed in case of val­ue accep­tance. Due to D1 C‑Sup at VAL I am lean­ing towards a short if price action con­firms but it would be unsafe.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Short (unsafe)
  • LN open below val­ue, out­side range, no mean rever­sion qualification
  • Return to VAL, D1-C‑S 13131.34
• Hypo 2 — Long
  • Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 13131.34

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay, feel­ing better

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING