25 Jul WTI Crude Week 31 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on WTI crude oil. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me.
Monthly — Slightly Bullish
- Developing month is trading above last month’s body but back within range after price made a new high taking out supplies
- Price trading within KC and hasn’t reached VWAP in an overall ranging market
- Still a lot that can happen in a week till candle close
Weekly — Slightly Bullish
- Price has been trading slowly above VWAP continuing incline and has re-entered KC
- New demand W1-C‑D 40.332 is formed through a consolidation with consequent weaker attempt to break higher
Daily — Neutral
- Multiple demand ZOIs formed on daily with D1-C‑D 35.727, D1-C‑D 38.947, and W1-C‑D 40.332 also being a daily demand zone
- Price traded away from the latter but wasn’t sustained and formed supply overhead through D1-C‑S B.E. 41.380
- No break away from the bear engulf though, instead price hovers above demand after testing overhead supply and could warrant more consolidation on the medium term
H4 — Slightly Bullish
- Demands made at H4-C‑D 40.244 and H4-C‑D 40.714 with a push up higher breaking from range to form a supply at H4-C‑S B.E. 41.888 no clean break away from supply, instead multiple tests after moving lower to H4-C‑D 40.714. Again unclean arrival here indicating possible phase 1 due to consolidation and bull engulf within consolidation.
- No push away from the bull engulf though, instead a continuation of the consolidation giving new supply H4-C‑S 40.996
- Longer buying wicks further suggesting a possible phase 1
Market Profile — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Multi-day bracketing with a slight dip below almost reaching M30 QLo followed by consequent move higher
- Last Friday was a P‑shaped profile day for London
Sentiment summary — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Larger time frames are looking bullish but price needs to break out of range to back this narrative up. Until such time anything could happen. As always, I will gauge intraday sentiment for more clues.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S B.E. 41.380
- H4-C‑S B.E. 41.888
- H4-C‑S 40.996
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 40.332
- D1-C‑D 38.947
- D1-C‑D 35.727
- H4-C‑D 40.244
Focus Points for trading development
- Weekly Goal
- Have correct SL placement and position sizing
- Due to summer time I will focus on trading off newly formed SD ZOIs for intraday plays. Keeping in mind that due to lack of liquidity 2nd chance entries can give better R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
- Risk Management
- Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
- Only trade off M30 candles
- Trading Priority
- FX pair outside value
- FX pair inside > Gold
- 2+R profit during LN consider trading PNYC
- After 4 losing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can consider taking profits
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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