WTI Crude 2021 Week 27 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on WTI Crude Oil. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• Last month closed high­er almost tak­ing out supply
• MN Sup­ply (from pre-covid) tak­en out

Week­ly — Bullish

• W1 Sup­ply tak­en out
• W1 Phase 2

Dai­ly — Bullish

• D1 hav­ing cre­at­ed new demands in line with D1 VWAP in UT with arrival at old D1 Supply

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

• MN sup­ply from pre­covid tak­en out
• W1 Sup­ply tak­en out, pos­si­ble next tar­get W1-C‑S 93.521
• Due to the bull­ish sen­ti­ment the expectan­cy is for old D1 sup­ply to get tak­en out as well

Addi­tion­al notes

• Jul 05, 16:00 EUR Mark­it PMI Composite
• Jul 06, 21:45 USD Mark­it PMI Composite
• Jul 06, 22:00 USD ISM Ser­vices PMI
• Jul 07, 22:00 CAD Ivey Pur­chas­ing Man­agers Index
• Jul 07, 23:00 USD Fed Mon­e­tary Pol­i­cy Report
• Jul 08, 02:00 USD FOMC Minutes
• Jul 08, 20:30 USD Ini­tial Job­less Claims
• Jul 08, 22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (THURSDAY)
• Jul 09, 20:30 CAD Unem­ploy­ment Rate

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 93.521
• D1-C‑S 76.651

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 75.155
• D1-C‑D 73.447
• D1-C‑D 71.203
• MN-C‑D 62.343

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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