WTI Crude 2021 Week 25 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on WTI Crude Oil. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price formed a MN RBR through Bull Engulf giv­ing MN-C‑D 62.343 with one test and con­tin­u­a­tion high­er arriv­ing at MN-C‑S 69.762 (cre­at­ed pre-COVID)
• Price trad­ing with­in MN QHi

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Last week closed high­er as a spin­ning top with equal-long wicks and slight reac­tion off W1-C‑S 73.267
• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body
• Trad­ing with­in W1 QHi

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• D1 Three Out­side Down giv­ing D1-C‑S 71.448 with no con­tin­u­a­tion. Instead price cre­at­ed some demand at D1 VWAP in UT giv­ing D1-C‑D 71.205 and is trad­ing with­in supply

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price is trad­ing at pre-COVID lev­el con­tin­u­ing the bull­ish move
• W1 show­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion with only a slight reac­tion at W1 Sup­ply and no rever­sal (yet)
• Pos­si­ble start of a D1 Phase 1 or 3 as price pulled back with no con­tin­u­a­tion (yet)

Addi­tion­al notes

• June 21st
  • ECB’s Pres­i­dent Lagarde speech
• June 23rd
  • ECB’s Schn­abel speech
  • ECB’s De Guin­dos speech
  • EUR — Mark­it PMI Composite
  • GBP — Mark­it Ser­vices PMI
  • USD — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
  • USD — Fed’s Bow­man speech
  • USD — Mark­it Man­u­fac­tur­ing PMI
• June 24th
  • ECB’s Pres­i­dent Lagarde speech
  • EUR — Euro­pean Coun­cil Meeting
  • GBP — BoE Inter­est Rate Decision
  • USD — Ini­tial Job­less Claims
  • EUR — ECB’s Schn­abel speech
• June 25th
  • EUR — Euro­pean Coun­cil Meeting

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 73.267
• D1-C‑S 71.448
• MN-C‑S 69.762

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 71.205
• MN-C‑D 62.343

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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