Weekly Trading Plan Crude Oil, Gold (XAU USD) and S&P 500 (SPX500) 04192020

This is my week­ly out­look on crude oil, gold and the S&P 500. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Then I come up with ways I think the mar­ket might react around those lev­els. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my hypoth­e­sis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — Crude Oil

• M: Still almost 2 weeks before the can­dle clos­es. Price is trad­ing in the bot­tom half of the can­dle but unclear if we’ll see more down­side. Will have to wait for the close of the can­dle. No Q points.
• W: Con­sol­i­da­tion in process. Too ear­ly to say if it’s a pen­nant or flag. Con­tin­u­a­tion down pos­si­ble. Still 200+ ticks room on the down­side before hit­ting Week­ly Demand ZOI at 23.20. No Q points.
• D: Failed to make a con­vinc­ing bull­ish move and the last 6 trad­ing days have all been clos­ing down. Fur­ther­more price is enter­ing Dai­ly Demand ZOI around 25.40. Q points active and QLo at 23.70. 
• H4: Price fail­ure to hold above VWAP. H4 Q points same as Dai­ly. Stronger H4 Demand ZOI (8) right at QLo 23.70.

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: BD with D TC VWAP pos­si­bly prompt­ing a 2nd leg down

Poten­tial tar­gets: 23.90, 22.80, 21.95, 20.60

Hypo2:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ Dai­ly QLo With­in Dai­ly QLo, look for con­fir­ma­tion on low­er time frames

Poten­tial tar­gets: 24.80, 25.95, 26.65

Hypo3:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ With­in Dai­ly QLo, look for con­fir­ma­tion on low­er time frames

Poten­tial tar­gets: 23.80, 24.80, 25.95, 26.65

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — Gold (XAU USD)

• M: Price with­in Quar­ter­ly and month­ly QHi and Sup­ply ZOI
• W: Long-wicked doji can­dle indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble evening star in the making
• D: Con­sol­i­da­tion below strong Sup­ply ZOI with con­se­quent BD
• H4: Retest of H4 Sup­ply ZOI with an Evening star, price moved down to Demand ZOI and formed a bear­ish engulf­ing just above it.

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: PB to 1700 area

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1680, 1670, 1655

Hypo2:

Long: Swing Rever­sal @ H4 QLo

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1665, 1680, 1695

Hypo3:

Short: D TC VWAP 

Poten­tial tar­gets: 1680, 1670, 1655,  1640, 1625

Obser­va­tions of the mar­ket — SPX500 (S&P 500)

• M: Almost full retrace­ment of last month’s can­dle body how­ev­er still almost 2 weeks left.
• W: Q Points active (retraced swing high low over 50%). Moved over VWAP. Not with­in Q Point.
• D: Con­sol­i­da­tion below 50MA and con­se­quent gap up but closed as a doji
• H4: Stronger Sup­ply ZOI (7) at 2936–2986

Hypo­thet­i­cals

Hypo1:

Short: Swing Rever­sal H4 Sup­ply ZOI

Poten­tial tar­gets: 2905, 2855, 2830