USDCAD — Week 23 Trading Plan

30 May USDCAD — Week 23 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Here you can find last week’s trad­ing plan:

USDCAD – Week 22 Trad­ing Plan

Month­ly — Bearish

• After pre­vi­ous month’s inside bar (clos­ing below MN QHi), last month’s bar has closed below the MN con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.38071

Week­ly — Bearish

• The week­ly being in a phase 3 for some time now final­ly broke demand and trad­ed and closed below range
• Last week closed with a sub­stan­tial move away from W1 QHi and sup­ply con­ter­mi­nous 1.39458 indi­cat­ing a phase 4 in process

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Base @ W1 QHi form­ing D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.39884 with con­se­quent drop
• D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion below MN con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.38071

H4 — Neutral

• Extend­ed phase 1 after a Phase 4
• Attempt at phase 2 last Fri­day with a big bull engulf how­ev­er not sus­tained result­ing in an inside bar
• Rang­ing between H4 con­ter­mi­nous 1.37283 — MN con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.38071

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Larg­er time­frames are indi­cat­ing a bear­ish sen­ti­ment how­ev­er medi­um time­frames are indi­cat­ing a poten­tial con­tra­dic­tion. This due to the phase 1 on H4 and con­sol­i­da­tion on D1 but would need a close away from con­sol­i­da­tion to reassess short/medium term sentiment. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.38071
• W1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.39458
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.39884
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40908

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.37283

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop (under spe­cial cir­cum­stances extend by half an hour)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations