USDCAD — Week 22 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Clean ral­ly to Month­ly Sup­ply ZOI 1.38146–1.46872, fol­lowed by inside bar (after rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a rang­ing market
  • Although devel­op­ing month (no close) is test­ing UKC and MN QHi
• Price has not left MN Sup­ply ZOI still above con­ter­mi­nous line 1.38157 but pre­vi­ous month close was below MN QHi
• Poten­tial for nor­mal for­ma­tion or RBD
• MN Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply best 1.39511 (same as D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand)
• Price still hasn’t left pre­vi­ous month candle’s body

Week­ly — Bearish

• Clear rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi with­in W1 Sup­ply ZOI with mul­ti­ple retests of W1 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line 1.41851 indi­cat­ing phase 3 distribution
• Price above upper KC in rang­ing market
• W1 Demand ZOI formed at the bot­tom of the Phase 3 range, con­ter­mi­nous demand at 1.41108
• W1 phase 3 range is still in effect although trad­ing below W1 QHi

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Price con­sol­i­dat­ed at D1 Demand ZOI and formed a bull­ish engulf at D1 QLo
• Bear­ish Engulf­ing at base from May 14th hav­ing cre­at­ed the ‘best’ con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply, price has returned to it after clos­ing out­side of D1 QLo

H4 — Bearish

• After Bull­ish engulf (con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39312) price moved high­er with ini­tial­ly some congestion. 
• Price moved clos­er to Pre­vi­ous ‘best’ D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply and con­se­quent­ly closed the week off exact­ly below MN/W1 QHi with a Bear­ish Engulfing

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• Larg­er time frames are still look­ing bear­ish due to phase 3 on W1 and a pos­si­ble nor­mal for­ma­tion / RBD on the MN1. H4 is show­ing a rejec­tion of pre­vi­ous D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply (low­er than pre­vi­ous) increas­ing the bear­ish sen­ti­ment. How­ev­er due to price not hav­ing left the Week­ly Phase 3 range I will be on the look­out for con­ges­tion and bull­ish sen­ti­ment on short to medi­um term.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40098
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40628
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40928

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1 QLo & H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39312
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39511
• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.38879

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until 12:30
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for 
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
    • Con­flu­ence with H4 con­ter­mi­nous line and low­er time frame con­fir­ma­tion for ear­ly entry
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations