USDCAD — Week 21 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Clean ral­ly to Month­ly Sup­ply ZOI 1.38146–1.46872, fol­lowed by inside bar (after rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a rang­ing market
  • Although devel­op­ing month (no close) is test­ing UKC and MN QHi
• Price has not left MN Sup­ply ZOI still above con­ter­mi­nous line 1.38157 but pre­vi­ous month close was below MN QHi
• Poten­tial for nor­mal for­ma­tion or RBD

Week­ly — Bearish

• Clear rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi with­in W1 Sup­ply ZOI with mul­ti­ple retests of W1 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line 1.41851 indi­cat­ing phase 3 distribution
• Price above upper KC in rang­ing market
• W1 Demand ZOI formed at the bot­tom of the Phase 3 range, con­ter­mi­nous demand at 1.41108
• Last week retraced the pre­vi­ous week’s can­dle back up but still with­in demand ZOI and W1 phase 3 range is still in effect

Dai­ly — Bullish

• Bear­ish Engulf­ing from May 7th is retraced back last week and even though we have a new small­er bear­ish engulf­ing around the same lev­el (D1 QHi)  we close above it on Fri­day with a bull­ish engulf­ing re-enter­ing QHi and above D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40928
  • Phase 2 markup still in effect coin­cid­ing with the W1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.41108 (even though still below we could see an exten­sion into the Sup­ply ZOI above)

H4 — Neutral

• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40928 same as H4 con­ter­mi­nous supply
• Price action unclear, big bar into H4 QHi but then anoth­er doji
• MN, W1, are up in trend. Dai­ly is down. H4 is up

Mar­ket Pro­file — Balanced

• Indi­cat­ing bal­anc­ing in effect for the moment. Will update this every day to gauge intra­day sentiment.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bear­ish (Warn­ing — some con­jec­ture ahead)

• Larg­er time frames are look­ing bear­ish due to phase 3 on W1 and a pos­si­ble nor­mal for­ma­tion / RBD on the MN1. Dai­ly is show­ing signs of a poten­tial move up on the short/medium term. Dai­ly KC is slop­ing back down after being in an uptrend but we could see an exhaust­ed move deep­er into D1 Sup­ply ZOI / reach­ing for UKC before even­tu­al­ly rolling over.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.41851
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40928

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.41108
• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.40529
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39504

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (Lon­don time)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for 
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations