USDCAD — Week 20 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Clean ral­ly to Month­ly Sup­ply ZOI 1.38146–1.46872, fol­lowed by inside bar (after rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a rang­ing mar­ket that close below MN QHi
• Price has not left MN Sup­ply ZOI still above con­ter­mi­nous line 1.38146
• Poten­tial for nor­mal for­ma­tion or RBD

Week­ly — Bearish

• Clear rejec­tion of Q1/Y1 QHi with­in W1 Sup­ply ZOI with mul­ti­ple retests of W1 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line 1.41850 indi­cat­ing phase 3 distribution
• Price above upper KC in rang­ing market
• Last week test­ed W1 C sup­ply with con­vinc­ing move down to upper KC

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Last Thurs­day Bear­ish Engulf­ing reject­ing W1 C Sup­ply now test­ing D1 Con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39534
• D1 Demand ZOI 1.38501–1.39534 from April 30th hav­ing tak­en out Demand from April 14th prior

H4 — Bearish

• Move away from D1/H4 QHi to QLo
• High­er volatil­i­ty rang­ing market
• Bear­ish engulf­ing at D1/H4 QLo with con­se­quent test­ing of H4 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line at 1.39378
• No H4 Demand ZOI formed yet

Mar­ket Pro­file — Bearish 

• Last week Mon­day- Thurs­day pro­file brack­et­ing with Fri­day hav­ing moved away indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble pick­up in momentum

Sen­ti­ment summary

• Trend indi­cat­ing Q1, MN1, W1 up, D1 down, H4 up
• Larg­er time frame price action indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble swing rever­sal so unless proven oth­er­wise my sen­ti­ment is bear­ish and will look for low­er time frame setups in this direction
• Price with­in D1/H4 QLo so there is a chance for a swing rever­sal if price action can con­firm a close out­side of QLo

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line at 1.39378
• H1 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line at 1.39493
• M30 Con­ter­mi­nous Sup­ply line at 1.39324

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1/H4 QLo after con­fir­ma­tion of D1 or H4 bull­ish price action trig­ger­ing a pos­si­ble swing rever­sal in line with larg­er time frame trend being up

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (Lon­don time)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
• Entry rules
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Learn how to use the Ses­sion Range Exhaustion
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations