Play: Mean Reversion to Return to Value (H4 VWAP in UT TC)
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GBPNZD
I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new format I am introducing into my process.
How was the Entry?
Large imbalance at the open within H4 supply after an uptrend I switched to a possible mean reversion trade. IB traded down from the open and D formed a DBD extending below IB. I had placed a Sell Stop Order at IB extension down.
As is turned out the actual play was a Return to Value coinciding (at H4 VWAP in UT TC).
Odds enhancer: H4 supply, H4 Double Top, D1 RBR, H4 VWAP in UT TC, Mean Reversion, Return to Value, Sell Stop Order,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
Entry could have been tighter to IBR but I usually like to give it 3 pips of extension before entering. SL placement was good due to the momentum nature of the trade even though it was cutting through the PA formation.
How was the profit target?
Value Edge would have been 2R but the narrative was different to which I will come to at the section ‘missed trade’ underneath.
How was the Exit?
The exit was good as it was price-based after F closed as a Bull Engulf I let the trade go for slightly longer which gave me 0.3R profit.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
My exit was price-based
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
A loss of ‑0.1R
What could I have done better?
I think I did well although this trade was definitely a risky one as the real opportunity came after I closed off this trade.
Observations
Price can ‘make a move’ to the actual play of the day. The ‘move’ towards the actual play is always riskier!
Missed Opportunity
This is the trade I ‘should have’ been in. This trade continued well beyond my trading window into overlap noise. And My trading window closed as a H4 Bear Engfulg but within the context of a D1 RBR this has proven to be less reliable. This is one of the thesis I am forward-testing in my research. I will devote a subsection to this when I get the time to do so.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day