Trade Review GBPNZD 20210408

10 Apr Trade Review GBPNZD 20210408

Play: Return to Val­ue, H4 con­sol­i­da­tion break­down with­in pos­si­ble D1 DBD

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new for­mat I am intro­duc­ing into my process.

How was the Entry?

There was a pos­si­ble D1 DBD nar­ra­tive with a near-Doji that closed with longer sell­ing wick and hav­ing made a LL after touch­ing D1 VWAP in UT. Pre­mar­ket H4 had bro­ken down from a con­sol­i­da­tion and Lon­don ope­nen 0.2xASR below val­ue, with­in range.A bear Engulf in A with an inside bar in B I wait­ed for a pos­si­ble DBD which came with C extend­ing and clos­ing below IB form­ing that DBD. With a mod­er­ate imbal­ance price could see retest of new­ly formed M30 sup­ply for a 2nd chance entry so this is where I put my Sell Lim­it order. This was a great entry. 

Odds enhancer: M15 VWAP in DT nice­ly reject­ing VWAP pri­or to the move

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

With entry at a round num­ber x.xx60 SL was per­fect due to being at x.xx85 and above the can­dle for­ma­tion and IB. 

How was the prof­it target?

Due to D1 nar­ra­tive of anoth­er poten­tial drop com­ing and no D1 demand in the way I could have negat­ed the H4 demand that price was trad­ing with­in and assumed it would get tak­en out. Thus prof­it tar­get was very good. Although trad­ing right into demand can always be tricky. 

How was the Exit?

Hor­ri­ble. There was no exit rule in place and I just act­ed out of FOMO. A poor low was formed and when it got popped and hit LTF demand I just took the trade off. That and the rea­son that I am active­ly observ­ing what hap­pens to LTF price when a medium/higher time­frame supply/demand area gets popped. There is usu­al­ly a bounce back which accord­ing to my exit rules I should have closed off the trade at 0R scratch. The active­ly observ­ing part I am refer­ring to is that even though this is a strong rever­sal pat­tern, with­in the high­er time­frame con­text being still valid this rever­sal pat­tern can be ignored. This is what hap­pened after a bull engulf was print­ed coin­cid­ing with a weak failed auc­tion. Price failed to find more busi­ness high­er and reversed to ulti­mate­ly con­tin­ue lower. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

As men­tioned above accord­ing to my exist­ing exit rules I would have had to scratch the trade. 

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

A time-based exit would have yield­ed only 0.5R although due to the nature of the move (ie. H4 demand tak­en out with­in D1 bear­ish sen­ti­ment) I could have gone into over­lap noise which on its close would have only net­ted 1R after reach­ing for 1.5R. Lat­er on in the ses­sion price even­tu­al­ly reached 2R. 

What could I have done better?

I think I did some­what okay here although not proud of myself for tak­ing prof­its too soon with­out a price action rever­sal. Although I was active­ly for­ward-test­ing the premise of when a medium/higher time­frame SD ares gets popped. Progress, not perfection. 

Obser­va­tions

When­ev­er a Medi­um or Higher/larger time­frame sup­ply or demand zone gets popped we can often see price print­ing rever­sal pat­terns on LTF time­frames we usu­al­ly deem reli­able for entries and exits. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

This par­tic­u­lar day there was no missed oppor­tu­ni­ty unless you count the 2nd DTTZ coin­cid­ing with a pull back to IB Edge. This could have been anoth­er entry or poten­tial­ly your first entry if you missed the first one. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210408

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210408