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Exit
How was the Entry, SL placement and sizing?
Large Imbalance at the open with nearby H4 supply. IB traded closed as a Bear Engulf with C extending below IB. Entry after 3 TPOs down, SL placement suboptimal due to the momentum nature of the trade thus cutting through formation. This was a Non-Farm Friday and thus a momentum move would be less likely to play out. As such, price retraced quite quickly and took out SL before continuing slightly down.
Odds enhancer: M30 Bear Engulf at M30 VWAP in UpTrend, nearby ADR 0.5 high
How was the Exit?
SL got hit due a pullback and lack of momentum behind the move as mentioned before. Price tested newly formed M30 C‑sup multiple times before moving slightly down.
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
If I had obtained a better entry based on the pullback in C as a 2nd chance entry (if I had the foresight to consider the lack of momentum on a Non-Farm Friday) this trade would have netted above 1R based on a time-based exit.
What could I have done better?
On a normal day I believe the thesis would have held up. Since it wasn’t: I could have 1) not traded this day due to price being messy due to Non-Farm Friday 2) I could have potentially opted for a 2nd chance entry on the newly formed M30 C‑sup due to the lack of momentum on this particular day. I will need more statistics on this particular even to back up this thesis though which will be one of my goals for NFF from this day on. Having said that this particular day would have been quite agonizing so there is a point to be made that mental capital preservation could be chosen over a potentially high risk trade. Will gather more stats to deny or confirm this.
Observations
On days where ranges are tighter or there is something else going on like a Non-Farm Friday, I find that H1 price action performs statistically better than M30/M15 combos.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day