Premarket Prep USDCAD 05192020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 big can­dle straight down from Sup­ply ZOI con­ter­mi­nous 1.40928 to Demand ZOI
• H4 KC range still in effect, inside bar at LKC / D1 Con­ter­mi­nous Demand 1.39504 / D1 QLo retrac­ing almost entire 1st candle
• Price overex­tend­ed from H4 VWAP
• H1 Ham­mer just below H4 QLo (less reli­able although did move back down)
• M30 show­ing a down­trend but with price mov­ing back up over VWAP how­ev­er still below LKC
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price below Lon­don PVAL+range
  • NY show­ing anoth­er B pro­file indi­cat­ing a sell off
  • HK retraced a bit of NY

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price almost entire­ly retraced the Week­ly Phase 3 range down from pre­vi­ous week
• Devel­op­ing MN can­dle at bot­tom of pre­vi­ous month’s inside bar

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1 QHi around PVAL
• Break of H1 Demand ZOI 1.39238 — 1.39387

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39504
• H4 QLo
• D1 QLo

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (Lon­don time)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for 
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations