Premarket Prep USDCAD 05182020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• No fol­low-through on D1 for an exten­sion higher
• H4 Evening Star into H4 Sup­ply ZOI above QHi with con­se­quent move below with some con­ges­tion at VWAP at the moment
• M30 show­ing a break below VWAP into Friday’s Demand ZOI but push­ing high­er for the moment dur­ing AS (poten­tial pull­back to VWAP coin­cid­ing with D1 Sup­ply con­ter­mi­nous 1.40928)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • AS above PVAH but with­in London’s VA so the mar­ket is in bal­ance for the moment

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Move below D1 Sup­ply con­ter­mi­nous 1.40928
• Over­all in line with larg­er time frame bear­ish nar­ra­tive but now focus is still the Week­ly Phase 3 being in play unless we can see a break down

Sen­ti­ment — Bearish

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.41851
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous sup­ply 1.40928

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.41108
• H4 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.40529
• D1 con­ter­mi­nous demand 1.39504

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (Lon­don time)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No star­ing at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a tar­get that has the chance of hit­ting min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for 
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations