Premarket Prep USDCAD 05052020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

USDCAD – Week 19 Trade Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to make alter­ations to my week­ly trad­ing plan and adjust a cer­tain bias if need be. 

These were the hypo­thet­i­cals in my week­ly trad­ing plan:

1. Swing Rever­sal H4 Sup­ply ZOI (com­plet­ed 60%)
   1. Price action con­firm­ing on H4 reject­ing H4 Sup­ply ZOI
   2. Pos­si­ble short entry around 1.417
   3. Tar­gets 1.411, 1.406, 1.402, extend­ed tar­get 1.396
2. M30 VWAP BD (com­plet­ed 100%, tar­gets hit dur­ing NY)
   1. Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing a break below VWAP
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.406
   3. Tar­gets 1.402, 1.396
3. Prev. Day High Reversal
   1. M30 Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing rejection
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.409
   3. Tar­gets 1.406, 1.402, 1.396

Obser­va­tions of the market

• Dai­ly chart is show­ing an Evening star with­in D1 Sup­ply ZOI just above con­ter­mi­nous line 1.406
• D1/H4 QHi Swing rever­sal in line with week­ly thesis
• H4 Range with high­er volatil­i­ty in play still
• Price get­ting close enough to H4 VWAP that it could find buy­ers on the medi­um term but on the short term it could still BD from H4 sup­ply 1.405–1.409, will need fur­ther con­fir­ma­tion on M30
• Price below M30 VWAP in low­er half of KC range, 2nd test of M30 Demand ZOI 1.405–1.406 dur­ing AS (less reliable)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • AS opened below prev. Day VAL but with­in range and then test­ed prev. Day Low with a devel­op­ing dou­ble distribution
  • Price cur­rent­ly below EU VAL + range
  • Price cur­rent­ly below US VAL but with­in range

Today’s hypo­thet­i­cals

1. BD Prev. Day Low / D1 Con­ter­mi­nous Line (short)
   1. Lon­don open below PVAL + Range, IB exten­sion to down­side (price action con­firm­ing) indi­cat­ing con­tin­u­a­tion and BD H4/M30 Demand ZOI
   2. Tar­gets 1.404, 1.4027
2. Range bound 1.404–1.408

Trade will either hit my tar­get or I will close off with time-based stop loss at noon Lon­don time regard­less of where the trade is.