Premarket Prep Gold 20210616

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below the range of the W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed low­er with­in the pre­ced­ing D1 Hammer’s range with­out mak­ing a LL trad­ing deep­er with­in D1 Demand
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4
  • H4 broke low­er from sup­ply H4-C‑S 1864.580 arrival at OLD H4 demand and price start­ed con­sol­i­dat­ing again. H4 Bull Engulf formed premarket. 
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24170
  • ASR: 15725
    • 393
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1869.070
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1851.560

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.16xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbalance. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, probe of val­ue, Failed Auction
• Hypo 2
  • Return to val­ue, VAL rever­sal, pos­si­ble 2nd chance entry if no exten­sion (although open sen­ti­ment might not favor it), mon­i­tor for sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 3
  • Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion, sus­tained auc­tion down, pos­si­ble late sus­tained auc­tion entry, pos­si­ble tar­get D1 QLo
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade long, near D1 Demand End 1845, tar­get IB low

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• H4-C‑S 1864.580

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.459 OLD
• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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