Premarket Prep Gold 20210615

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed as a Ham­mer react­ing off D1 200MA clos­ing above D1 UKC in UT
  • H4 Bull Engulf react­ed off H4-C‑D 1853.459 OLD and H4 200MA in UT, but with no con­tin­u­a­tion. Instead some consolidation. 
• Trend: H4 UP, D1 UP, W1 UP
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed far extend­ed below the pre­vi­ous, below the over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24438
  • ASR: 16123
    • 403
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1875.560
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1844.670

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1999.863 at H4 QHi
  • H4-C‑D 1853.731 OLD at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.46xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar but still trad­ing between new­ly formed H4 sup­ply and demand. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Gap up although just 0.46xASR. Trad­ing mid D1 swing com­ing from a D1 QHi rejec­tion, although trend is still up 3/3. Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3,  Could go either way. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue / Failed Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up 3/3, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down to val­ue edge (LTF demand at VAH), PA rever­sal fail­ing auction. 
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Bear­ish narrative
• Hypo 2 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Sus­tained Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Bull­ish Inside Bar, open above sen­ti­ment, Trend is UP 3/3,
  • Pre­ferred: IB takes out new­ly formed H4 sup­ply, IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion to 1877, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry due to a H4 Sup­ply pop
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Bear­ish Narrative
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 Bear­ish Sen­ti­ment (Ham­mer not the strongest rever­sal pattern)
  • Pre­ferred: IB trad­ing low­er, ear­ly close with­in val­ue tak­ing out LTF demand, quick rotation
  • Con: Open sen­ti­ment a bit far, Old H4 demand at VAL.
• Hypo 4 — Failed Auction
  • Vari­a­tion to Hypo 2, if price fails to find busi­ness above IB, 
  • Pre­ferred: quick close back into IB with PA reversal
  • Con: tight IBR
• Hypo 5 — Auc­tion Fade
  • If price moves high­er there might be TPO struc­ture build and rever­sal back to IB.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.459 OLD
• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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