Premarket Prep Gold 20210607

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar clos­ing at D1 QHi (after rejec­tion) with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in its body
  • H4-C‑D 1871.527 formed (at D1 VWAP in UT) through Bull Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to H4 QHi. Price fal­tered and reversed giv­ing H4‑C– 
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP although H4 changed to down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24224
  • ASR: 12833
    • 320
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1896.100
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1855.800

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1871.527 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 trad­ed down.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open com­ing from H4 QHi after D1 QHi was rejected. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, com­ing from H4 QHi after a D1 QHi rejection
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down to val­ue edge.
  • Con: H4 demand at VAH
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, H4-C‑D 1871.527 at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, TPO struc­ture, pos­si­ble SPF, 
  • Con: Slight­ly against larg­er time­frame sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up,
  • Con: D1 QHi Rejection

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1897.428
• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1871.527

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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