Premarket Prep Gold 20210603

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 22 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing at the top of last week’s body after hav­ing made a HH with­in W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf (not the strongest, pos­si­ble con­sol­i­da­tion) made above D1-C‑D 1896.335 High in Dis­tr. Curve
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed below pre­vi­ous sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 1907.816
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the two over­lap­ping val­ues pre­ced­ing it but still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19354
  • ASR: 11325
    • 283
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1908.940
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1894.280

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1907.816 with­in M30 QHi above range
  • D1-C‑D 1896.335 High in Dis­tr. Curve with­in val­ue at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Open with­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Big fol­low-through to the H4 Bear Engulf price return­ing to D1-C‑D 1896.335 High in dis­tr. Curve. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. With the open inside there is a shift in sen­ti­ment in line with a pos­si­ble rever­sal at these lev­els. Hav­ing test­ed the D1 demand that is high in the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve is also in line with this nar­ra­tive. Price is trad­ing with­in W1 QHi and sup­ply could back this nar­ra­tive up although could be that price is not quite ready to make a full rever­sal as there is no con­firmed rever­sal pat­tern on either D1/W1. D1 could be con­sol­i­da­tion or be in phase 2.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­ble D1 consolidation
  • Pre­ferred: play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble change in sen­ti­ment, W1 Sup­ply / QHi, pos­si­ble D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion Break Down
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below VAL coin­cid­ing with an exten­sion of IB to the down­side. Sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Trad­ing into new­ly formed H4 demand at D1 demand that is high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve could prove risky 
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion continued
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auction
  • Con: W1 Sup­ply, QHi

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1911.084
• H4-C‑S 1907.816
• W1-C‑S 1890.750

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1896.335 High in Dis­tr. Curve
• H4-C‑D 1892.728 OLD

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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