Premarket Prep Gold 20210601

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 22 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body and range with­in W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ed high­er with­in D1 QHi although made some demand D1-C‑D 1897
  • H4 made a new high after hav­ing cre­at­ed some demand at H4-C‑D 1905.200
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous but still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20539
  • ASR: 12328
    • 310
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1910.560
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1901.980

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1905.200 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.79xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed mak­ing a HH
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open although not entire­ly ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria. H4 clos­ing high­er not hit­ting sup­ply there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move first although longs are very risky con­sid­er­ing price is trad­ing with­in D1/W1 QHi. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open Sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction 
  • Con: LTF demand at M30 VWAP in UT with­in medium/high time­frame bull­ish narrative
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: open above val­ue, medium/high time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Price tra­vers­ing down dur­ing IB or extend­ing below to LTF demand before revers­ing with bull­ish PA to fad­ing the auc­tion, Sin­gle print Fade to failed auction.
  • Con: Trad­ing with­in D1/W1 QHi

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1890.750

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1905.200

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit anx­ious so will be a bit care­ful. Also, with being the first day of the month I do not need to go wild on the first day.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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