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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Currently in lockdown
- Trading rules
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
- 1R targets allowed if conditions are less than optimal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price is trading above last week’s body and range higher into W1 Supply and W1 QHi
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 closed as an inverted hammer within D1 Qhi
- H4 formed a bear engulf giving H4-C‑S 1905.668 with not much follow-through. Price is still trading and having created some H4 demand above H4 VWAP and UKC in UT
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is up although still trading within W1 Supply and QHi
- Market Profile
- Value created above 3‑day bracketing range with price currently trading below. If value gets accepted there might be a follow-through higher. Otherwise bearish sentiment is in play.
- Daily Range
- ADR: 22024
- ASR: 12190
- 305
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1912.660
- Yesterday’s Low 1890.600
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1896.350 at M30 QLo, H4 VWAP in UT
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Below Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.27xASR
- Premarket
- H4 Morning Star created in premarket
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance as price opened slightly outside of range. M30 consolidation below VAL and range. There could be a D1 consolidation going on unless price breaks below H4 Demand End 1890.534. With trend being up and D1 inverted hammer being less reliable there could be a continuation higher and thus and acceptance of value (which is very tight and LTF supple is right above it.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Responsive Activity
- Narrative: With new H4 supply and demand created and price trading within, coupled with a possible D1 consolidation this session could be just meandering around.
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: Possible D1 consolidation, open sentiment, trend being up,
- Preferred: Early acceptance and quick follow-through
- Con: too tight value plus LTF supply at VAH
- Hypo 3 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Open sentiment, D1 inverted hammer (although less reliable)
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA, IB extension down taking out LTF demand
- Con: H4 demand
Additional notes
- Capital preservation rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1905.668
- W1-C‑S 1889.818
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1896.350
- H4-C‑D 1880.700
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING