Premarket Prep Gold 20210527

27 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210527

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Cur­rent­ly in lockdown
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and range high­er into W1 Sup­ply and W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed as an invert­ed ham­mer with­in D1 Qhi
  • H4 formed a bear engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1905.668 with not much fol­low-through. Price is still trad­ing and hav­ing cre­at­ed some H4 demand above H4 VWAP and UKC in UT
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although still trad­ing with­in W1 Sup­ply and QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above 3‑day brack­et­ing range with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below. If val­ue gets accept­ed there might be a fol­low-through high­er. Oth­er­wise bear­ish sen­ti­ment is in play. 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22024
  • ASR: 12190
    • 305
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1912.660
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1890.600

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1896.350 at M30 QLo, H4 VWAP in UT
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.27xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Morn­ing Star cre­at­ed in premarket
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance as price opened slight­ly out­side of range. M30 con­sol­i­da­tion below VAL and range. There could be a D1 con­sol­i­da­tion going on unless price breaks below H4 Demand End 1890.534. With trend being up and D1 invert­ed ham­mer being less reli­able there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er and thus and accep­tance of val­ue (which is very tight and LTF sup­ple is right above it. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: With new H4 sup­ply and demand cre­at­ed and price trad­ing with­in, cou­pled with a  pos­si­ble D1 con­sol­i­da­tion this ses­sion could be just mean­der­ing around.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 con­sol­i­da­tion, open sen­ti­ment, trend being up, 
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: too tight val­ue plus LTF sup­ply at VAH
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, D1 invert­ed ham­mer (although less reliable)
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand
  • Con: H4 demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1905.668
• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1896.350
• H4-C‑D 1880.700

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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