Premarket Prep Gold 20210526

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 trad­ed high­er with­in W1 Sup­ply and W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR below D1/W1 QHi
  • H4 Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1880.700 fol­lowed by RBR after H4 VWAP in UT TC 
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 2
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up although trad­ing with­in W1 Sup­ply and W1 QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et with price trad­ing above
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23324
  • ASR: 13347
    • 340
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1900.190
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1880.700 with­in val­ue at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.6xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Ham­mer formed after a RBR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large to Huge Imbal­ance at the open and H4 formed a Ham­mer which is not the most con­fi­dent close. Fur­ther­more, price is trad­ing around the round num­ber of 1900 with­in W1 Sup­ply there could be a reaction. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, 1900, not the strongest H4 PA, train­ing with­in W1 Supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down pos­si­bil­i­ty hit­ting H4 demand base lev­el, sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Con: H4 Phase 2
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Phase 2, open sen­ti­ment could show strength
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion (pos­si­ble low/medium ini­tia­tive activity
  • Con: open sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, TPO struc­ture with Bull­ish PA rever­sal either fad­ing the auc­tion or SPF. 
  • Con: Trad­ing with­in W1 Supply.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1880.700

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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