Premarket Prep Gold 20210521

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ed high­er test­ing W1-C‑S 1889.818 with slight reaction

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Speed Bump with slight con­tin­u­a­tion high­er still trad­ing below D1 QHi
  • H4 Phase 1 / 3 below D1 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price trad­ing with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23863
  • ASR: 15971
    • 400
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1883.780
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1863.750

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 DBD through an Invert­ed Hammer
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With open right above VAH there could be an accep­tance of val­ue although there is LTF demand and H$ VWAP right below.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, W1 Supply
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance tak­ing out LTF demand and quick follow-through
  • Con: Large demand at VAL
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sen­ti­ment, D1 con­tin­u­a­tion high­er after speed bump
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA at val­ue edge, IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion to W1 Supply
  • Con: Trad­ing into Supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.372
• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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