Premarket Prep Gold 20210520

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price reached W1 QHi and W1-C‑S 1889.818 and there is a slight reaction

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Doji with­in a con­sol­i­da­tion per­haps a speed­bump trad­ing below D1 QHi
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is still Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous but price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24402
  • ASR: 15678
    • 400
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1889.950
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1852.170

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1889.818 at yesterday’s high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Closed as an Inside Bar with a some sell­ing wick
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price opened above val­ue with­in range with wide LTF demand at VAH as well as H4 VWAP in UT there could be grounds for a bounce high­er from here as the trend is still up. Hav­ing had some reac­tion off D1 QHi there could be grounds for accep­tance of val­ue and con­tin­u­a­tion down.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 speed bump, trend is up, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, wide LTF demand at M30 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA at VAH to IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: W1/D1 QHi
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble rever­sal after react­ing off D1/W1 QHi. Pos­si­ble H4 phase 3
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: wide LTF demand at VAH

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.372
• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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