Premarket Prep Gold 20210519

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing high­er above last week’s body and range near­ing W1/D1 Sup­ply End at 1875.70

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed high­er clos­ing with­in supply
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 hav­ing cre­at­ed some demand with­in supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22964
  • ASR: 14588
    • 370
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1874.950
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1863.170

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bull Engulf at H4 demand clos­ing high­er with­in supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With price hav­ing trad­ed side­ways for a while and now open above val­ue, with­in range there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Unless there is an accep­tance of val­ue the the­sis remains bullish. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sen­ti­ment, H4 bull engulf, medium/larger time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out D1/W1 sup­ply end
  • Con: W1-C‑S 1889.818 above it
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Move towards W1-C‑S 1889.818 before build­ing TPO struc­ture and revers­ing. P:ossible Sin­gle Print Fade
  • Con: W1/D1 Sup­ply popped if there is a move high­er first
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Mar­ket want­i­ng to bal­ance fur­ther poten­tial­ly revers­ing at these levels. 
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through. 
  • Con: tight val­ue not giv­ing much of a prof­it target. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818
• D1-C‑S 1856.064
• W1-C‑S 1847.500

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram