19 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210519
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading higher above last week’s body and range nearing W1/D1 Supply End at 1875.70
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 traded higher closing within supply
- Possible H4 Phase 1 / 3 having created some demand within supply
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is Up
- Market Profile
- Values in UT
- Daily Range
- ADR: 22964
- ASR: 14588
- 370
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1874.950
- Yesterday’s Low 1863.170
Sentiment
- Locations
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above Value, Within Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.2xASR
- Premarket
- H4 Bull Engulf at H4 demand closing higher within supply
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance. With price having traded sideways for a while and now open above value, within range there could be a continuation to the move. Unless there is an acceptance of value the thesis remains bullish.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: open sentiment, H4 bull engulf, medium/larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- Preferred: Strong bullish PA, IB extension up with sustained auction taking out D1/W1 supply end
- Con: W1-C‑S 1889.818 above it
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: Variation to Hypo 1
- Preferred: Move towards W1-C‑S 1889.818 before building TPO structure and reversing. P:ossible Single Print Fade
- Con: W1/D1 Supply popped if there is a move higher first
- Hypo 3 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: Market wanting to balance further potentially reversing at these levels.
- Preferred: Early acceptance and quick follow-through.
- Con: tight value not giving much of a profit target.
Additional notes
- Capital preservation rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1889.818
- D1-C‑S 1856.064
- W1-C‑S 1847.500
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1825.850
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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