Premarket Prep Gold 20210517

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range trad­ing with­in W1 supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price con­tin­u­ing on D1 Three Out­side Up
  • Price trad­ing with­in D1/W1 QHi
  • Price trad­ing high­er with­in old H4 sup­ply near­ing the Sup­ply End although more old sup­ply above it. 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23909
  • ASR: 15123
    • 380
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1845.650
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1819.680

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Price trad­ed to H4 Sup­ply End and took out H4/D1 supply. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • The large imbal­ance at the open sug­gests a pos­si­ble mean rever­sion although in this case it could be strength behind the move. Price already took out D1 Supply. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and trad­ing with­in supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand, sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Bull­ish sen­ti­ment, trend is up, 
• Hypo 2 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up, D1 Sup­ply got tak­en out
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA either with a momen­tum exten­sion up or by pulling back to LTF demand (pos­si­bly extend­ing below to failed auc­tion) before mov­ing higher.
  • Con: Open sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1856.064
• W1-C‑S 1847.500

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing tired so not going to force things

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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