Premarket Prep Gold 20210514

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body after mak­ing a slight HH

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf at D1-C‑S 1836.25 fol­lowed by a Bull­ish Inside Bar
  • H4 demand cre­at­ed through Bull Engulf (at H4 50MA in UT) giv­ing H4-C‑D 1821.50 with no imme­di­ate fol­low-through. Instead a H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR through Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1825.25
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up. Although H4 has shift­ed to Down indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble shift in sentiment. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT although price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23626
  • ASR: 15027
    • 380
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1828.680
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1808.720

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1821.50 above val­ue, with­in range. H4-C‑S 1828.250 right above
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bull Engulf tak­ing out some H4 sup­ply clos­ing above H4 VWAP
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. With new­ly formed H4 bull engulf and thus c‑dem there could be a mean rever­sion to new C‑dem before a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er. The large imbal­ance could how­ev­er be a sign of strength behind the move which is a bit too large imo.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­ble H4 2nd chance entry, near­by D1-C‑S 1836.250
  • Pre­ferred: strong bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down to Val­ue edge, oth­er­wise exten­sion up to failed auction
  • Con: H4 Bull Engulf
• Hypo 2 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment could indi­cate strength, H4 Bull Engulf premarket, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Sup­ply overhead

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1‑C‑S 1836.250
• H4-C‑S 1825.25

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1825.65
• H4-C‑D 1821.50

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay, not the sharpest

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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