Premarket Prep Gold 20210513

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is react­ing off W1-C‑S 1847.500

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf react­ing off D1-C‑S 1836.25 clos­ing below W1 QHi (although still trad­ing with­in D1 QHi)
  • Price returned to H4-C‑D 1814.150 and start­ed con­sol­i­dat­ing (above H4 50MA in UT although no touch)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although hav­ing reached W1/D1 QHi there might be a rever­sal at hand. H4 phase 3 and break down fur­ther enhances this sentiment. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues yesterday’s val­ue was cre­at­ed below fur­ther enhanc­ing the rever­sal sentiment
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 25423
  • ASR: 15375
    • 385
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1843.540
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1813.180

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Closed slight­ly high­er as a Ham­mer pos­si­bly a pullback. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. With the open sen­ti­ment price could go either way. If price takes out H4 demand under­neath there could be more down­side in line with H4 Phase tran­si­tion to 4.Franky Fake Out took it up and IB back down.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 Phase 3 to 4, D1 Bear Engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down
  • Con: Small H4 demand in the way.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 demand at H4 50MA in UT
  • Pre­ferred: Price tra­vers­es low­er ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, strong bull­ish PA to failed auc­tion or IB exten­sion up. 
  • Con: H4 phase 3 to 4 narrative
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
  • Pre­ferred: Price action moves high­er to val­ue edge before revers­ing with strong bear­ish PA, TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade.
  • Con: LTF sup­ply in the way

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• Might lose elec­tric­i­ty today due to main­te­nance to pow­er supply

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1‑C‑S 1847.500
• H4-C‑S 1841.250
• D1‑C‑S 1836.250

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1814.150

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram