Premarket Prep Gold 20210512

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a slight HH and is still trad­ing with­in W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 price fal­ter­ing a bit but still there is a buy­ing wick and a slight close with­in D1-C‑S 1836.250
  • Price is trad­ing with­in D1/H4 QHi
  • Price took out H4 demand and test­ed the next demand H4-C‑D 1820.55 in a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3. H4 closed below H4 VWAP in UT
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping val­ues after a UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24023
  • ASR: 14004
    • 350
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1841.700
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1818.030

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1836.250 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar with­in a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance at the open. With a near-prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge there could be an accep­tance. Although due to the 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues and an open below val­ue there could be a shift in sen­ti­ment with­in W1/D1 QHi and there could be a move down.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues with 3rd day open­ing below. W1/D1 QHi, near­by D1 C‑sup at VAL.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Trend is up although trad­ing with­in W1/D1 QHi
• Hypo 2 — Vari­a­tion to Hypo1
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Swing Reversal
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA revers­ing at H4 c‑dem, pos­si­ble Sin­gle Print Fade or TPO structure
  • Con: N.A.
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the uptrend
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1‑C‑S 1847.50
• H4-C‑S 1841.250
• D1‑C‑S 1836.250

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1820.550
• H4-C‑D 1814.150

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram