Premarket Prep Gold 20210510

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Doing one now

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price closed slight­ly with­in W1 QHi to W1 50MA in UT BD to pos­si­ble CAR and arrival at W1-C‑S 1847.500 with lit­tle reaction

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price closed high­er with­in D1 QHi with slight reac­tion off D1-C‑S 1836.250 near­ing D1 200MA in R
  • H4 Phase 2 tak­ing out sup­plies with new arrival at H4-C‑S 1841.250
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP although cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in D1/W1 QHi. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24967
  • ASR: 12817
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1843.270
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1812.760

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1820.55 at VAH
  • H4-C‑D 1814.150 below VAL, out­side range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er but still below D1/H4 supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. Trend is up although has reached D1/W1/H4 sup­plies and thus a rever­sal might be more probable.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with near­by supplies
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down (pos­si­ble failed auc­tion), sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge first tak­ing out lit­tle H4 demand.
  • Con: H4 demand in the way 
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: hit­ting a medium/high time­frame sup­ply zone there could be some respon­sive activ­i­ty before pick­ing a direction. 
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: price extends below IB and formed a rever­sal pat­tern near or above val­ue edge, TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade to IB edge.
  • Con: N.A.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1‑C‑S 1847.50
• H4-C‑S 1841.250
• D1‑C‑S 1836.250

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1820.550
• H4-C‑D 1814.150
• D1‑C‑D 1771.750

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Did not sleep well last night due to late din­ner so prob­a­bly will not trade. Just sit and observe. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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