Premarket Prep Gold 20210505

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last month’s Bull Engulf
• Trad­ing above last week’s body and made a HH from W1 formation

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar (clos­ing below D1 QHi) mak­ing a slight HH and return­ing to D1-C‑D 1771.75 react­ing a little
  • Price trad­ed high­er and react­ed off H4-C‑S 1797 at H4 UKC in R before clos­ing as a Bear Engulf (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1783.670) return­ing to H4 base and con­se­quent test of orig­i­nat­ing formation
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed on top of the over­all range with price return­ing to the over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22735
  • ASR: 12026
    • 300
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1798.900
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1770.800

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1783.670 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf formed premarket. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbalance. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open below sen­ti­ment, H4 Bear Engulf premarket
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auc­tion, prob­a­bly low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to under­ly­ing demand
  • Con: Trad­ing right into H4/D1 demand.
• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price trad­ing towards the bot­tom of the over­all range into H4/D1 demand
  • Pre­ferred: Move down ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria with near­by H4/D1 demand form­ing a strong rever­sal to failed auc­tion and pos­si­bly a Neu­tral Day.
  • Con: H4 bear engulf premarket

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1783.670

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1771.750

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay but did not sleep enough last night

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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