Premarket Prep Gold 20210504

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week and entire W1 flim­sy Evening Star for­ma­tion trad­ing at W1 VWAP in DT
• Price reject­ed W1 QLo before and price has arrived at D1 QHi and start­ed pos­si­bly reaccumulating

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • A big D1 Bull Engulf was formed at D1-C‑D 1771.750 tak­ing out D1-C‑S 1783.500
  • Price trad­ed high­er form­ing a H4-C‑D 1779.750 BASE to H4-C‑S 1797 and reversed through a H4 RBR
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: H4 turned into Up again and trend is now a strong Up. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue, although in top of the over­all range, has not left that range.
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21107
  • ASR: 12178
    • 310
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1797.930
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1767.350

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1779.750 BASE at VAH and ADR 0.5 Low
  • D1-C‑D 1771.750 below VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 DBD with price near­ing H4-C‑D 1779.750 BASE at VAH there might be a bounce here as this is some­thing that I am for­ward-test­ing. As part of a pos­si­ble D1 Pullback.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. There might be a bounce from LTF demand above VAH.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Pull­back, H4 retrac­ing to a base demand lev­el but not hit­ting it. Instead there is a LTF demand and VAH in the way where buy­ers could be wait­ing to step in. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up, Sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF supplies.
  • Con: H4-C‑S 1791.817 BASE in the way although when hit there could be more upside
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 DBD
  • Pre­ferred: Failed Auction
  • Con: open sen­ti­ment, Neu­tral Day
• Hypo 3 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price extends high­er hit­ting H4 sup­ply before reversing
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA cou­pled with TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade
  • Con: Trend is up

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1805.750
• H4-C‑S 1797
• H4-C‑S 1791.817 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1779.750 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1771.750

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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