Premarket Prep Gold 20210429

29 Apr Premarket Prep Gold 20210429

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 17 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Pos­si­ble W1 RBR due to price trad­ing above last week’s body although with­in range
• Price trad­ing at W1 VWAP in DT

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price took out D1 demand and closed as a Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick clos­ing with­in D1 QHi after W1 QLO got reject­ed some time ago). Hav­ing said that price could be in a D1 Phase 3 instead of a redis­tri­b­u­tion (phase 1 after rally)
  • Price returned to H4-C‑S 1785.121 at (H4 UKC in R after UT) with sup­ply hav­ing been test­ed (even near-touch­es) mul­ti­ple times. Need more infor­ma­tion for a pos­si­ble rejec­tion of supply.
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although medi­um time­frame has shift­ed to down indi­cat­ing a slow­down in the move and pos­si­ble rever­sal on the hori­zon (sor­ry for the con­jec­ture but it was meant as a les­son). REVERSAL IS NOT CONFIRMED.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑days over­lap­ping val­ue and yes­ter­day cre­at­ed val­ue below these with cur­rent­ly now price hav­ing extend­ed over the for­ma­tion. Cur­rent­ly trad­ing 1.2xASR above value. 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20577
  • ASR: 13633
    • 340
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1783.120
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1762.540

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1783.85 below M30 QHi, with­in H4 QHi at mean rever­sion distance
  • H4-C‑D 1768.500 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.8xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf formed at D1 supply.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. With new­ly formed H4 Bear Engulf there might be a test of new­ly formed c‑sup and thus an exten­sion up from IB before fail­ing auc­tion. Longs are not favored due to the imbal­ance at the open and new­ly formed sup­ply. Unless there is a retrace­ment to val­ue edge.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 C‑sup, open sen­ti­ment, D1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down or oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion test­ing IB exten­sion high. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price retraces to val­ue edge or LTF demand that is above VAH and reverses
  • Preferred:Strong Bear­ish rever­sal after an exten­sion down, if neu­tral day this could come even quick­er oth­er­wise look for pos­si­ble buy­ing tail and/or TPO struc­ture around val­ue edge. 
  • Con: H4 Bear Engulf

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• Near­ing end of the month so be cautious

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1783.85

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1768.500

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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