Premarket Prep Gold 20210427

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 17 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body, but still with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Closed high­er react­ing off D1-C‑D 1775.50 clos­ing at D1 QHi below D1-C‑S 1783.85
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3
  • H4 Bear Engulf at H4 VWAP in UT CAR (and D1 c‑sup) although with longer buy­ing wick (react­ing off D1 c‑dem) clos­ing below H4 QHi. Price still above H4 50MA in UT
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 or 3
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although medi­um time­frame show signs of a pos­si­ble rever­sal or reaccumulation 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below a 3‑day brack­et which in the case for an uptrend is not the strongest sign. If cou­pled with an open (and hold) below val­ue there could be more down­side on the short-term.
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21787
  • ASR: 15208
    • 380
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1783.450
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1768.730

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1783.85 above Val­ue, slight­ly out­side range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Closed as a H4 Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, pos­si­ble H4 DBD.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below a 3‑day brack­et which in the case for an uptrend is not the strongest sign. As the mar­ket opened with­in val­ue there might be some bal­anc­ing before any con­tin­u­a­tion or reversal. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR lev­els, D1/M30 demand at VAL
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 DBD
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 DBD, close below D1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down clos­ing well with­in demand
  • Con: Trad­ing right into H4/D1 demand
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion Up, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF/H4 supply
  • Con: Open sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1805.50
• D1-C‑S 1783.85

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1775.50 (High Dis­tr. Curve)
• H4-C‑D 1770.25

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay but not a 100%

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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