Premarket Prep Gold 20210426

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 17 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Last week closed as a spin­ning top with slight­ly longer sell­ing wick (react­ing off W1 VWAP in DT) although due to W1 QLo rejec­tion there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to this move and thus form­ing a W1 RBR. Still too ear­ly to say since we still have 5 trad­ing days before a W1 close.
• Price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body (with­in range of sell­ing wick though)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar with con­tin­u­a­tion down although no close with­in D1-C‑D 1775.50 (which is high in the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) but clos­ing below D1 QHi
    • Although due to W1 QLo rejec­tion an oppos­ing low­er time frame QHi like the D1 could prove weak and get tak­en out
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and H4 Bear Engulf (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1785.25) break down fin­ish­er coin­cid­ing with a H4 VWAP in UT BD. Price arrived at H4 50MA in UT and H4-C‑D 1770.25 and saw a reac­tion to a pos­si­ble H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR (coin­cid­ing with a retest of H4 QHi after an rejection)
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Some­what of a flim­sy 3‑day bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22465
  • ASR: 14701
    • 370
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1795.940
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1769.910

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1785.25 is with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Closed as a H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large Imbal­ance at the open. Even though Medi­um time­frame shows a pos­si­ble rever­sal there has not been a con­tin­u­a­tion to that sen­ti­ment yet to con­sid­er chang­ing the larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. The open below val­ue does show sell­ers more in con­trol and thus we could see a return to val­ue. An accep­tance of val­ue would negate the short term bear­ish sentiment.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, Medi­um time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment, H4 bear­ish inside bar at retest of H4 QHi after rejection.
  • Pre­ferred: Move high­er to VAL extend­ing IB (pos­si­bly test­ing H4 c‑sup at PPOC) ear­ly on to strong bear­ish PA at val­ue edge to failed auction. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment. 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick rotation
  • Con: H4 c‑sup at PPOC

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1805.50
• H4-C‑S 1785.25

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1775.50 (High Dis­tr. Curve)

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay although slept a lit­tle less than normal

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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