Premarket Prep Gold 20210421

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 16 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price arrived at W1 VWAP in DT with not much reac­tion (yet) after ear­li­er hav­ing reject­ed W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Move high­er after arriv­ing at D1 QHi a small RBR was printed
  • H4 VWAP in UT TC at H4-C‑D 1770 ear­li­er and price is mov­ing high­er near­ing the End of over­head H4 supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22709
  • ASR: 14838
    • 370
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1780.320
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1763.560

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1770 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 almost took out H4 sup­ply but then reversed
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large imbal­ance at the open means a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a mean rever­sion. Although trend is up and price could con­tin­ue higher. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, D1/H4 QHi, Asia trad­ed higher.
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Trend is up. 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, H4 c‑dem at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Move down, PA rever­sal, pos­si­bly TPO struc­ture or sin­gle print fade
  • Con: If val­ue gets accepted
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 VWAP in UT TC, Trend being up
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply.
  • Con: open sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1797
• H4-C‑S 1779.50

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1770

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Again didn’t sleep the best so the focus is not on tak­ing trades unless some­thing real­ly jumps out. Oth­er­wise I will just sit and observe.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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