Premarket Prep Gold 20210420

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 16 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last week’s body as a pos­si­ble devel­op­ing spin­ning top although way too ear­ly in the week to say any­thing con­clu­sive oth­er than price has reached W1 VWAP in DT

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price moved high­er to D1 QHi with a D1 50MA in DT BO to UKC (although no CAS as of yet) form­ing an D1 Inside Bar at D1 QHi with longer sell­ing wick
  • H4 Bear Engulf with buy­ing wick formed at D1/H4 QHi giv­ing H4-C‑S 1779.50 with slight con­tin­u­a­tion down to H4 VWAP in UT coin­cid­ing with H4-C‑D 1762.5
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up com­ing from a W1 QLo rejection
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues still in UT although dis­tance between has dras­ti­cal­ly decreased
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23302
  • ASR: 14769
    • 370
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1789.970
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1766.650

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1779.50 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Invert­ed Ham­mer at H4 VWAP
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Price hav­ing reached H4 VWAP in UT there could be a bounce from this level. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Respon­sive Activity
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Com­ing from D1/H4 QHi there might be a continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand
  • Con: Trend is up
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: same as Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1797
• H4-C‑S 1779.50

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1762.50

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but not the most sharp

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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