Premarket Prep Gold 20210419

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 BO from con­sol­i­da­tion (after rejec­tion W1 QLo) near­ing W1 VWAP in DT, mid W1 swing

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ing at D1 QHi after a D1 VWAP in DT BO and CAS giv­ing D1-C‑D 1741.470
  • H4 Phase 2 arriv­ing at H4 QHi fol­lowed by a slow down in price action. H4-C‑D 1762.5 formed at H4 VWAP in UT
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up. W1 QLo got reject­ed and price has arrived at D1/H4 QHi. There is a pos­si­bil­i­ty for those swings to get tak­en out.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT although Friday’s val­ue was 1.1xASR wide
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22468
  • ASR: 13220
    • 330
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1783.720
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1759.710

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1762.50 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 ham­mer after bull engulf a pos­si­ble RBR in the mak­ing. Even though below H4 QHi due to W1 QLo rejec­tion before price could take out H4/D1 QHi. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance with­in range implies a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move up. Pos­si­bil­i­ty for D1 QHi to get tak­en out due to W1 QLo rejection. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 ham­mer after bull engulf a pos­si­ble RBR in the mak­ing. Even though below H4 QHi due to W1 QLo rejec­tion before price could take out H4/D1 QHi. IBR wide indi­ca­tion pos­si­ble strength behind the move.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion to 1797
  • Con: Near­ing W1 VWAP in DT
• Hypo 2 — H4 Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion above to H4 sup­ply, Bear­ish PA with pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture, fade the auction
  • Con: N.A.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1797

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1762.50

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing jumpy, didn’t sleep well. Gonna sit today out in terms of trad­ing but will observe and take notes.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram