Premarket Prep Gold 20210415

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in last weeks body with cur­rent­ly some reac­tion off demand although no close yet

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • No con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 Bull ENgulf instead a Bear­ish Inside Bar (after react­ing a 2nd time off D1 50MA in DT) clos­ing with­in new­ly formed demand
  • Mid D1 swing
  • H4 Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1745 with con­tin­u­a­tion low­er clos­ing below H4 QHi although after hav­ing reject­ed D1 QLo before. Price then con­sol­i­dat­ed and formed a Bull Engulf (giv­ing H4-C‑D 1736) below H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up and has reject­ed D1 QLo but now has reject­ed H4 QHi thus mak­ing a long trade riski­er. Would need more infor­ma­tion from open sen­ti­ment and orderflow
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed much high­er after a DT 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22112
  • ASR: 12417
    • 310
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1749.270
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1732.530

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1745 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR right at edge
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to H4-C‑S 1745.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate imbal­ance with B clos­ing slight­ly with­in val­ue pos­si­bly accept­ing val­ue. Although H4 marubozu can­dle pre­ced­ing it there might be strength behind the move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Ear­ly accep­tance of val­ue at H4 c‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Quick fol­low-through through value
  • Con: flim­sy close with­in value
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 move pos­si­bly set­ting up for a D1 50MA BO 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action form­ing a Neu­tral Day tak­ing out H4 supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1745

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1737

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but a lit­tle on edge. Best to be cau­tious today.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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