Premarket Prep Gold 20210414

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing last week’s body high still above last month’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Closed as a Bull Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑D 1741.470 with longer buy­ing wick after D1 VWAP BO to CAS
  • Clean arrival at H4-C‑D 1726 with large fol­low-through through Three Inside Up to con­sol­i­dat­ing with­in H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22481
  • ASR: 13590
    • 340
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1748.850
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1723.670

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Large Imbal­ance. And price test­ed D1-C‑D 1741.470 and moved high­er clos­ing as H4 Bull engulf with longer buy­ing wick after consolidation.. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the D1 bull engulf even though price opened on a large imbal­ance. Could be a sign of strength behind the move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble strength behind the move after D1 bull engulf at VWAP.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: run­ning into H4-C‑S 1750.861
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: Medi­um time­frame speedbump
• Hypo 3 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action tak­ing out LTF demand with susa­tiend auction
  • Con: H4 bull engulf with long buy­ing wick (2nd chance entry D1 bull Engulf)

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1750.861
• D1-C‑S 1743.50

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1743 BASE
• H4-C‑D 1732.717 / W1-C‑D 1730.366

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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