Premarket Prep Gold 20210408

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 14 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s Drag­on­fly Doji and W1 demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR after reject­ing D1 QLo with yes­ter­day form­ing an Inside Bar with a buy­ing wick — still trad­ing with­in D1 sup­ply (about 1xADR to go to take out said supply)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 or 3 test­ing off H4 VWAP in UT trad­ing with­in H4 QHi (pos­si­bly less valu­able as D1 QLo has been reject­ed). Con­sis­tent H4 demands in UT being made
  • H4 Sup­ply End 1746.500 (round num­ber) still intact
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues still in UT although strength has died off a bit as yesterday’s val­ue is right on top of the pre­vi­ous one. 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21681
  • ASR: 11993
    • 300
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1743.780
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1730.530

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1742.491 above VAH with­in M30 QHi
  • H4-C‑D 1732.717 below VAL right above M30 QLo 
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Morn­ing Star with IB tak­ing out H4 sup­ply. In line with pos­si­ble D1 RBR.
    • Trend just turned all to UP
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance even though slight­ly above range. Pos­si­ble D1 RBR and H4 sup­ply tak­en out after form­ing a Morn­ing Star.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 RBR, H4 sup­ply tak­en out
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price Action, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: H4-C‑S 1751 right above
• Hypo 2 — H4 Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 sup­ply over­head, Trad­ing with­in D1 sup­ply, pos­si­ble D1 consolidation 
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up with price action rever­sal at H4 sup­ply, per­haps a failed auc­tion or TPO struc­ture build and or sin­gle print fade
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 RBR
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 supply
  • Pre­ferred: No IB exten­sion up, ear­ly accep­tance and follow-through
  • Con: IB not the widest, LTF demand at VAL, H4 C‑dem at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1751

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1732.717

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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