Premarket Prep Gold 20210330

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 13 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last month’s body
• Trad­ing deep­er into W1 supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 break down from con­sol­i­da­tion through Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1727.859 return­ing to D1-C‑D 1707.900 arriv­ing at D1 QLo (no reac­tion yet)
  • H4 phase 4 with a bear engulf giv­ing new sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1710.694 (low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
• Pre­mar­ket
  • Con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 drop tak­ing out D1 demand
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues with price break­ing down and trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21818
  • ASR: 12634
    • 320
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1732.810
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1705.680

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1727.859 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.9xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Huge Imbal­ance. Plus IB cre­at­ed is 0.9xASR indi­cat­ing either a strong move down or per­haps respon­sive activ­i­ty. With under­ly­ing D1 demand it is prob­a­bly too risky to trade direct­ly into it.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 phase 4 tak­ing out D1 demand
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down on momen­tum with sus­tained auction.
  • Con: D1 demand underneath 
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: Too wide IB range
  • Pre­ferred: Price extends below, fails auc­tion, M30 QLo
  • Con: pos­si­ble H4 phase 4

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• End of the month

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1727.859
• H4-C‑S 1710.694

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.900
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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