Premarket Prep Gold 20210329

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 13 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s inside bar
• Pos­si­bly form­ing a MN ham­mer (no close yet)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion between sup­ply and demand, trad­ing mid D1 swing
  • Trad­ing mid H4 swing
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 
• Pre­mar­ket
  • Closed as Bear Engulf from con­sol­i­da­tion giv­ing new sup­ply right at W1 demand
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend in line with bal­anc­ing in the market
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20798
  • ASR: 13165
    • 330
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1736.650
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1721.450

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • N.A.
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Open with­in val­ue at M30 QLo sug­gest­ing a bal­anc­ing mar­ket. IB cre­at­ed a bull engulf with no fol­low through (yet). Medi­um time­frame bal­anc­ing so unless a big demand/supply gets tak­en out price will con­tin­ue to balance. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket /  Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price trad­ing at M30 QLo at the bot­tom of medi­um time­frame range
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: New­ly formed H4 supply
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion down
  • Nar­ra­tive: con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 Bear Engulf, mid D1 swing
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down coin­cid­ing with val­ue rejec­tion, sus­tained auction
  • Con: W1 demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• End of the month

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1738

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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