Premarket Prep Gold 20210326

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion and pos­si­ble D1 phase 3 trad­ing at D1 VWAP in DT although trad­ing above D1 demand (which could be con­sid­ered a base)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 or 3, price trad­ing deep­er with­in demand, weak H4 bear engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1731.388
• Pre­mar­ket
  • H4 bull engulf at H4 UKC with­in demand
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: mixed trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22221
  • ASR: 13329
    • 350
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1745.400
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1721.690

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1731.388 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open sen­ti­ment sug­gests a  con­tin­u­a­tion down­ward although a H4 bull engulf was formed pre­mar­ket there might be a rever­sal com­ing. Although with price trad­ing mid swing there might be grounds for fur­ther down­side as larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment is still bearish
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment, open sen­ti­ment, arrival at D1 base demand
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction
  • Con: trad­ing right into demand
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sen­ti­ment, H4 bull engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion although less like­ly with H4 c‑sup in the way
  • Con: LTF sup­ply at VAL, H4 c‑sup above
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1738
• H4-C‑S 1731.388

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1727 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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